Lifetime costs of complications resulting from type 2 diabetes in the U.S.

OBJECTIVE To model the lifetime costs associated with complications of type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A cohort of 10,000 patients with diabetes was simulated using a model based on existing epidemiological studies. Complication rates were estimated for various stages of macrovascular disease, nephropathy, retinopathy, neuropathy, and hypoglycemia. At the beginning of the simulation, patients were assumed to have been treated for 5 years and have a mean HbA1c of 8.4. From the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study, it was estimated that on current therapies, the HbA1c would drift upward on average 0.15% per year. Direct medical costs of managing each complication were estimated (in 2000 U.S. dollars) from all-payor databases, surveys, and literature. RESULTS Macrovascular disease was estimated to be the largest cost component, accounting for 85% of cumulative costs of complications over the first 5 years. The costs of complications were estimated to be $47,240 per patient over 30 years, on average. The management of macrovascular disease is estimated to be the largest cost component, accounting for 52% of the costs; nephropathy accounts for 21%, neuropathy accounts for 17%, and retinopathy accounts for 10% of the costs of complications. CONCLUSIONS The complications of diabetes account for substantial costs, with management of macrovascular disease being the largest and earliest. If improving glycemic control prevents complications, it will reduce these costs.